ZVIITIKO ZVAKAITIKA

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 13 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 13, 2024

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) (04:30 UTC):
- Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: 1.6%.
  Measures output across Japan’s industrial sectors. Strong growth would signal robust manufacturing activity, supporting the JPY. Weak data would weigh on the currency.
China New Loans (Nov) (10:00 UTC):
- Forecast: 950.0B, Previous: 500.0b.
  Reflects lending activity by Chinese banks. Higher lending indicates strong credit demand and economic activity, supporting the CNY and boosting global risk sentiment. Weak data would suggest caution in the economy.
Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) (10:00 UTC):
- Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -2.0%.
  Improvement would signal stabilization in manufacturing, supporting the EUR. Continued weakness would weigh on the currency.
US Price Indices (MoM) (Nov) (13:30 UTC):
- Export Price Index: Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: 0.8%.
- Import Price Index: Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: 0.3%.
  Declining prices indicate easing inflationary pressures in trade. Strong data would support the USD, while weak figures could dampen its momentum.
US Baker Hughes Rig Counts (18:00 UTC):
- Oil Rig Count: Zvakapfuura: 482.
- Total Rig Count: Zvakapfuura: 589.
  Increasing rig counts suggest rising supply, potentially pressuring oil prices. Declines signal tightening supply, supporting prices and commodity-linked currencies.
CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
Tracks speculative sentiment in major asset classes, including crude oil, gold, equity indices, and key currencies. Shifts indicate changing market sentiment and positioning trends.

Market Impact Analysis

Japan Industrial Production:
Strong growth would support the JPY by signaling industrial recovery. Weak data could suggest economic challenges, weighing on the currency.
China Zvikwereti Zvitsva:
Higher lending activity would support the CNY, indicating robust economic demand and boosting global risk sentiment. Weak lending would dampen growth outlooks for China and its trading partners.
Eurozone Industrial Production:
Stabilization in production would support the EUR by signaling resilience in the manufacturing sector. Continued weakness would weigh on the currency.
US Price Indices:
Declining export and import prices would signal easing trade-related inflationary pressures, potentially tempering USD strength. Strong figures would support the USD by indicating resilient pricing power.
Oil & Commodity Sentiment:
Rig count trends will influence crude oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like CAD and AUD. Increasing supply could weigh on prices, while tightening supply would support them.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with notable influences from industrial production data in Japan and the Eurozone, Chinese lending trends, and US trade inflation metrics.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by industrial and trade data shaping sentiment for JPY, EUR, CNY, and USD movements.

12/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 12 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 12, 2024

Australia Employment Data (Nov) (00:30 UTC):
- Kuchinja Kwebasa: Forecast: 26.0K, Yakapfuura: 15.9K.
- Kuchinja Kwebasa Kwakazara: Zvakapfuura: 9.7K.
- Mwero Wokushaya Basa: Forecast: 4.2%, Yakapfuura: 4.1%.
  Strong employment growth or stable unemployment would signal a resilient labor market, supporting the AUD. Weak data could weigh on the currency by highlighting economic challenges.
IEA Monthly Report (09:00 UTC):
Updates on global energy supply and demand trends. Insights into production or demand forecasts can influence oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like CAD and AUD.
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision & Policy Updates (13:15–13:45 UTC):
- Deposit Facility Rate: Forecast: 3.00%, Yakapfuura: 3.25%.
- Interest Rate Decision: Forecast: 3.15%, Yakapfuura: 3.40%.
- ECB Press Conference (13:45) & Lagarde Speech (15:15):
  Hawkish decisions or remarks would support the EUR, signaling ongoing inflation concerns. Dovish moves could weaken the currency by suggesting a slowdown in tightening.
US Labor Market & Producer Inflation Data (13:30 UTC):
- Zvichemo Zvekutanga Zvisina Basa: Forecast: 221K, Yakapfuura: 224K.
- Kuenderera mberi Nezvichemo Zvisina Basa: Forecast: 1,880K, Yakapfuura: 1,871K.
- Core PPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.2%, Yakapfuura: 0.3%.
- PPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.2%, Yakapfuura: 0.2%.
  Stable or declining PPI would signal easing inflationary pressures, potentially softening the USD. A strong labor market would reinforce USD strength.
US 30-Year Bond Auction (18:00 UTC):
- Previous Goho: 4.608%.
  Rising yields would support the USD by reflecting higher inflation expectations or increased demand for government debt.
New Zealand Business PMI (Nov) (21:30 UTC):
- Previous: 45.8.
  PMI below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector. A further decline would weigh on the NZD, while improvement would signal recovery.
Japan Tankan Survey (Q4) (23:50 UTC):
- Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX: Forecast: 9.6%, Yakapfuura: 10.6%.
- Tankan Large Manufacturers Index: Forecast: 13, Zvakapfuura: 13.
- Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index: Forecast: 33, Zvakapfuura: 34.
  Indicates business sentiment and capital expenditure. Strong readings support the JPY by signaling optimism, while weaker results may weigh on the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

Australia Employment Data:
Strong employment figures or stable unemployment rates would support the AUD, signaling economic resilience. Weak data would weigh on the currency.
ECB Decision & Lagarde Speech:
Hawkish ECB policies or rhetoric would support the EUR, reflecting inflation concerns and policy tightening. Dovish remarks or rate cuts would weaken the EUR.
US Labor & Inflation Data:
Lower jobless claims and stable PPI would reinforce USD strength by indicating a strong labor market and manageable inflation. Higher claims or weaker PPI figures might soften the USD.
Japan Tankan Survey:
Strong sentiment or CAPEX growth would support the JPY, reflecting business confidence. Declines would suggest economic challenges, weighing on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with critical decisions from the ECB, key labor and inflation data from the US, and employment trends in Australia driving movements in the AUD, EUR, and USD.

Impact Score: 8/10, influenced by ECB rate decisions, US labor and inflation data, and manufacturing sentiment from Japan and New Zealand.

11/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 11 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 11, 2024

OPEC Monthly Reports (10:00 & 12:00 UTC):
Provides updated insights into global oil demand, supply trends, and production levels. Changes in production targets or demand forecasts significantly impact crude oil prices, influencing commodity-linked currencies like CAD and AUD.
US Inflation Data (Nov) (13:30 UTC):
- Core CPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Yakapfuura: 0.3%.
- Core CPI (YoY): Forecast: 3.3%, Yakapfuura: 3.3%.
- CPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Yakapfuura: 0.2%.
- CPI (YoY): Forecast: 2.7%, Yakapfuura: 2.6%.
  Inflation data is crucial for assessing the Fed’s monetary policy direction.
- Market Impact:
  - Higher-than-expected inflation would reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, supporting the USD.
  - Weaker inflation would suggest easing price pressures, potentially weighing on the USD.
US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
- Previous: -5.073M.
  A drawdown indicates strong demand, supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies. A build would suggest weaker demand, pressuring prices.
US 10-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
- Previous Goho: 4.347%.
  Rising yields indicate stronger inflation expectations or increased demand for returns, supporting the USD.
US Federal Budget Balance (Nov) (19:00 UTC):
- Forecast: -325.0B, Previous: -257.0B.
  Reflects government spending and revenue. A widening deficit could weigh on the USD by highlighting fiscal imbalances.
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) (21:45 UTC):
- Previous: 0.6%.
  Measures consumer spending through electronic card transactions. Growth would signal strong consumer demand, supporting the NZD. Decline suggests caution among consumers, potentially weighing on the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

OPEC Monthly Reports:
Optimistic demand forecasts or reduced supply expectations would support oil prices, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Bearish revisions would pressure prices.
US Inflation Data:
Higher inflation figures would boost the USD by reinforcing rate hike expectations. Softer inflation would suggest a reduced need for tightening, weighing on the currency.
Crude Oil Inventories & 10-Year Auction:
A crude oil drawdown would support oil prices and energy-linked currencies. Rising 10-year note yields would attract investment into the USD, reinforcing its strength.
New Zealand Retail Sales:
Strong growth in card transactions would indicate resilient consumer spending, supporting the NZD. Weak data might weigh on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by key US inflation data, crude oil inventories, and OPEC insights shaping commodity and currency markets.

Impact Score: 8/10, with inflation metrics, oil market updates, and fiscal data driving USD, CAD, and NZD movements.

10/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 10 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 10, 2024

Australia NAB Business Confidence (Nov) (00:30 UTC):
- Previous: 5.
  Inoratidza manzwiro ebhizinesi muAustralia yese. Maonero akanaka anotsigira iyo AUD, nepo kudzikira kunoratidza kungwarira pakati pemabhizinesi, angangoremera pamari.
China Trade Data (Nov) (03:00 UTC):
- Trade Balance: Forecast: $94.00B, Pamberi: $95.27B.
- Zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (YoY): Forecast: 0.3%, Yakapfuura: -2.3%.
- Zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (YoY): Forecast: 8.5%, Yakapfuura: 12.7%.
  Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwakasimba kana kudzoreredza mune zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kungaratidza kuvandudza kudiwa kwepasirese uye kwepamba, kutsigira CNY uye manzwiro enjodzi. Dhata isina kusimba inogona kupa pfungwa pamusoro pehupfumi hweChina, huremu paCNY uye mari-yakabatana-mari seAUD.
Australia RBA Mutengo Wemubereko & Chirevo (03:30 UTC):
- Forecast: 4.35%, Previous: 4.35%.
  Inzwi re hawkish kana kukwira kusingatarisirwi kwaizotsigira AUD. Dovish tsananguro inosimbisa njodzi dzehupfumi inogona kuremedza mari.
Eurozone & OPEC Misangano (10:00 UTC):
- Musangano weEurogroup wakanangana nenyaya dzehupfumi nemari mukati meEurozone.
- Musangano weOPEC unokurukura mitemo yekugadzira mafuta uye mamiriro emusika. Kugadziriswa kwezvinobuda kungakanganisa mitengo yemafuta uye mari yakabatana nemidziyo.
US Labor Kugadzirwa & Mari (Q3) (13:30 UTC):
- Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ): Forecast: 2.2%, Yakapfuura: 2.5%.
- Mari Yemayuniti Yevashandi (QoQ): Forecast: 1.9%, Yakapfuura: 0.4%.
  Kubudirira kwepamusoro kunotsigira kubudirira kwehupfumi, kunobatsira USD. Kukwira kwemitengo yevashandi kunoratidza kumanikidzwa kwemuhoro, izvo zvinogona kusimbisa kushushikana kweinflation uye kutsigira USD.
US Energy & Agricultural Reports (17:00 UTC):
- EIA Yenguva Yenguva Yesimba Maonero: Inopa ruzivo rwekudiwa kwesimba uye maitiro ekugadzira, achipesvedzera misika yemafuta nemagetsi.
- WASDE Report: Kugadziridzwa kwezvekurima uye kudiwa, zvichikanganisa misika yezvigadzirwa.
US 3-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
- Previous Goho: 4.152%.
  Kukwira kwegoho kunoratidza tarisiro yakakwira inflation kana kuwedzera kudiwa kwekudzoka, kutsigira USD.
US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
- Previous: 1.232M.
  Kudonhedza kunoratidza kudiwa kwakasimba, kutsigira mitengo yemafuta uye mari yakabatana nesimba. Kuvaka kunoratidza kuderera kudiwa, kumanikidza mitengo.
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q4) (23:50 UTC):
- Forecast: 1.8, Previous: 4.5.
  Inoyera mamiriro ebhizinesi pakati pevagadziri vakakura. Kuvandudza mamiriro ezvinhu anotsigira JPY, nepo kuderera kwekunzwa kunogona kurema pamari.

Market Impact Analysis

Australia NAB & RBA Sarudzo:
A hawkish RBA kana kuvandudza bhizinesi kuvimba kwaizotsigira iyo AUD. Kuvimba kusina simba kana toni dzematoni dzemitemo dzinogona kuremedza mari.
China Trade Data:
Huwandu hwekutengeserana hwakasimba, kunyanya kudzoreredza kunze kwenyika, hwaizotsigira CNY uye kuvandudza manzwiro enjodzi yepasirese, zvichibatsira mari yakabatana nemidziyo senge AUD. Mashoko asina simba anogona kuderedza manzwiro.
Kugadzirwa kweUS & Mari:
Kukwira kwechigadzirwa uye kugadzikana kwemitengo yevashandi kwaizotsigira USD, zvichiratidza kubudirira kwehupfumi. Kukwira kwemitengo yevashandi kunogona kusimbisa inflation, zvakare kutsigira USD.
Mafuta & Commodity Reports:
Sarudzo dzeOPEC, data reEIA, uye WASDE zvigadziriso zvinokanganisa mitengo yezvinhu uye mari yakabatana seCAD neAUD.
Japan Manufacturing Sentiment:
Kuvandudza mamiriro ebhizinesi kwaizotsigira JPY, zvichiratidza kusimba muchikamu chekugadzira. Data isina kusimba inogona kuratidza matambudziko arikuenderera mberi, achiremera mari.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Yakakwira, ine kutarisisa kwakakosha padhata rekutengesa reChina, sarudzo yeRBA, kugadzirwa kwevashandi veUS, uye OPEC yemusika wemafuta manzwisisiro.

Impact Score: 8/10, inotungamirwa nedata rekutengeserana kwepasirese, sarudzo dzebhangi repakati, uye mishumo yemusika wekutengesa inoumba manzwiro eAUD, CNY, USD, uye JPY.

09/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 9 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 8, 2024

China Inflation Data (Nov) (01:30 UTC):
- CPI (MoM): Zvakapfuura: -0.3%.
- CPI (YoY): Zvakapfuura: 0.3%.
- PPI (YoY): Zvakapfuura: -2.9%.
  Iyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inoyera inflation kubva pakuona kwevatengi, nepo Producer Price Index (PPI) inoratidza shanduko yemitengo kubva pakuona kwekugadzira.
- Market Impact:
  - Yakasimba CPI: Inoratidza kukwira kwemitengo, kutsigira CNY uye kusaina kunogona kudzoreredza mukudiwa kwemba.
  - CPI isina simba kana PPI: Inopa deflationary kumanikidzwa, kungangorema paCNY uye kusaina kushomeka kwehupfumi hweChina.
Zvitarisiro zveUS NY Fed Kwegore Rimwechete (1:14 UTC):
- Previous: 2.9%.
  Inoteedzera zvinotarisirwa nevatengi zvenguva pfupi yekukwira kwemitengo.
- Market Impact:
  - Zvikuru Zvinotarisirwa: Kurudzira kukwira kwemitengo, kungangotsigira USD sezvo ichisimbisa pfungwa dzeFed pakudzora inflation.
  - Zvishoma Zvinotarisirwa: Ratidza kurerutsa kunetsa kweinflation, kungangorema paUSD uye kudzikisira tarisiro yekuwedzera kukwira kwemitengo.

Market Impact Analysis

China Inflation Data:
Yepamusoro-kupfuura-inotarisirwa CPI yaizoratidza kuvandudza kudiwa kwemba, kutsigira CNY uye kuwedzera manzwiro enjodzi pasi rose. Huwandu husina kusimba hwePPI hwaizoratidza kuenderera mberi kwekudzvinyirira muindasitiri yeindasitiri, ingangorema paCNY uye mari yakabatana-yakabatana seAUD.
US NY Fed Inflation Zvinotarisirwa:
Kukwidziridzwa kwekukwira kwemitengo kwaizotsigira USD, zvichiratidza kuti inflation inoramba ichinyanya kukosha kune Fed. Tarisiro yakaderera inogona kuremerwa neUSD, zvichikurudzira kudzikisira inflation uye kuderedza kukwira kwemitengo.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Zvine mwero, zvine tarisiro pa data rekuChina reinflation rinopesvedzera CNY uye nehupamhi hwenjodzi manzwiro, uye tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yeUS inoumba maonero eUS.

Impact Score: 6/10, inosundwa nedata reinflation muChina uye tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yeUS, ichipesvedzera manzwiro emusika emari nezvinhu.

08/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 6 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 6, 2024

Australia Home Loans (MoM) (Oct) (00:30 UTC):
- Previous: 0.1%.
  Reflects changes in the number of new home loans issued. Growth signals strength in the housing market and consumer confidence, supporting the AUD. Weak data would weigh on the currency.
Eurozone GDP (Q3) (10:00 UTC):
- YOY: Forecast: 0.9%, Yakapfuura: 0.6%.
- QoQ: Forecast: 0.4%, Yakapfuura: 0.4%.
  Strong GDP growth would signal economic resilience, supporting the EUR. Lower-than-expected growth could weigh on the currency.
US Labor Market Data (Nov) (13:30 UTC):
- Nonfarm Payrolls: Forecast: 202K, Yakapfuura: 12K.
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls: Forecast: 160K, Previous: -28K.
- Mwero Wokushaya Basa: Forecast: 4.2%, Yakapfuura: 4.1%.
- Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Yakapfuura: 0.4%.
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): Zvakapfuura: 4.0%.
  Labor market strength would reinforce expectations of economic resilience, supporting the USD. Weaker-than-expected data could signal economic slowing, potentially softening the currency.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (15:00 UTC):
- 1-Gore Rinotarisirwa Kuwedzera Kwemari: Zvakapfuura: 2.6%.
- 5-Gore Rinotarisirwa Kuwedzera Kwemari: Zvakapfuura: 3.2%.
- Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 73.1, Zvakapfuura: 71.8.
  Improved sentiment and stable inflation expectations would support the USD by reflecting consumer confidence and price stability.
US Baker Hughes Rig Count (18:00 UTC):
- Oil Rig Count: Zvakapfuura: 478.
- Total Rig Count: Zvakapfuura: 582.
  Rising rig counts indicate increased oil supply, potentially pressuring oil prices, while declining counts suggest tightening supply, supporting prices.
US Consumer Credit (Oct) (20:00 UTC):
- Forecast: 10.10B, Previous: 6.00b.
  Higher credit growth reflects increased borrowing, signaling consumer confidence, which would support the USD. Declining credit growth could indicate caution among consumers.
CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
- Inoteedzera fungidziro mukati mafuta asina kuchena, goridhe, equities, uye mari hombe. Changes in positions offer insights into market expectations and potential price movements.

Market Impact Analysis

Australia Home Zvikwereti:
Strong home loan growth would signal resilience in the Australian housing market, supporting the AUD. Weak data may weigh on the currency.
Eurozone GDP:
Strong GDP growth would support the EUR by indicating economic stability. Lower-than-expected growth could weaken the EUR, reflecting challenges in the Eurozone economy.
US Labor Market Data:
Strong payroll figures and stable wage growth would reinforce USD strength by signaling robust labor market conditions. Weak labor data would suggest economic cooling, potentially softening the currency.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Zvinotarisirwa:
Improved sentiment and stable inflation expectations would signal economic resilience, supporting the USD. Weaker sentiment or rising inflation expectations could weigh on the currency.
US Baker Hughes Rig Count & Consumer Credit:
Rising rig counts would pressure oil prices, influencing commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Higher consumer credit growth would reflect consumer confidence, supporting the USD.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by US labor market data, Eurozone GDP, and Michigan consumer sentiment. OPEC updates and Baker Hughes rig counts will influence oil prices and commodity-linked currencies.

Impact Score: 8/10, with significant focus on nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, and consumer sentiment shaping expectations for USD and global market sentiment.

05/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 5 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 5, 2024

Australia Trade Balance (Gumiguru) (00:30 UTC):
- Forecast: 4.580B, Previous: 4.609b.
  Inoratidza musiyano pakati pezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kunze kwenyika. Kuwedzera kwekutengesa kwepamusoro kwaizoratidza kudiwa kwakasimba kwekunze, kutsigira AUD. Mari yakaderera yaigona kuyera mari.
Japan BoJ Board Member Nakamura Anotaura (01:30 UTC):
Maonero anogona kupa nzwisiso mumaonero ehupfumi hweBoJ kana chimiro chemari. Matauriro eHawkish aizotsigira iyo JPY, nepo toni dzedovish dzinogona kuinetesa.
Musangano weOPEC (10:00 UTC):
Musangano uyu uchakurukura mazinga ekugadzirwa kwemafuta uye mafambiro epasi rose. Sarudzo dzekucheka kana kuchengetedza zvinobuda zvinotsigira mitengo yemafuta, ukuwo kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kungamanikidza mitengo. Izvi zvinokanganisa mari inoenderana nemafuta seCAD uye misika yezvinhu.
US Trade Data (Oct) (13:30 UTC):
- Zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (Oct): Zvakapfuura: 267.90B.
- Zvinobva kunze (Gumiguru): Zvakapfuura: 352.30B.
- Trade Balance (Gumiguru): Forecast: -75.70B, Previous: -84.40B.
  Kuderera kwekushomeka kungaratidza kuvandudza kutengeserana dynamics, kutsigira USD. Kuwedzera kushomeka kunogona kuremedza mari yacho.
Zvichemo zveUS zvisina Basa (13:30 UTC):
- Zvichemo Zvekutanga Zvisina Basa: Forecast: 215K, Yakapfuura: 213K.
- Kuenderera mberi Nezvichemo Zvisina Basa: Zvakapfuura: 1,907K.
  Zvichemo zvepamusoro zvaizoratidza kupfava kwemusika wevashandi, zvinogona kunetesa USD. Zvichemo zvakaderera zvingaratidza kusimba, kutsigira mari.
Fed's Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):
Shanduko dziri muFederal Reserve's balance sheet dzinogona kupa nzwisiso mugwaro remari uye mamiriro emari, zvichipesvedzera manzwiro eUSD.
Kushandiswa Kwemari kuJapan (Oct) (23:30 UTC):
- Amai: Forecast: 0.4%, Yakapfuura: -1.3%.
- YOY: Forecast: -2.6%, Yakapfuura: -1.1%.
  Kudzokororwa kwekushandisa kungaratidza kuvandudza kuvimba kwevatengi, kutsigira JPY. Kuramba kusimba kwaizorema pamari.

Market Impact Analysis

Australia Trade Balance:
Kuwedzera kwepamusoro kwaizotsigira iyo AUD nekuratidza kudiwa kwakasimba kwekutengesa kunze kweAustralia. Yakaderera yakasara inogona kuratidza matambudziko ekunze, zvichiremera mari.
Kushandisa Kwemhuri yeJapan & Kutaura kwaNakamura:
Kuvandudzwa kwekushandisa data kwaizoratidza kwakasimba kudiwa kwemba, kutsigira JPY. Mashoko eHawkish kubva kuNakamura aizowedzerawo mari, nepo toni dzedovish kana data isina simba inogona kuipfavisa.
Musangano weOPEC:
Sarudzo dzekucheka kugadzirwa kana kuchengetedza mazinga azvino zvinotsigira mitengo yemafuta, zvichibatsira mari-yakabatana nemari seCAD. Kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwaizomanikidza mitengo uye kuyera pamari idzi.
US Trade Balance & Zvikumbiro Zvisina Basa:
Kuderera kwekutengesa kushomeka kwaizotsigira USD, zvichiratidza simba rekutengeserana rakasimba. Zvichemo zvakaderera zvekushaya basa zvaizoratidza kusimba kwemusika wevashandi, zvichisimbisa kusimba kweUSD. Zvikumbiro zvakakwirira kana kuti kushomeka kuri kuwedzera kunogona kuremedza mari yacho.
Fed's Balance Sheet:
Kuwedzera kana kudhonzwa kwebalance sheet kunogona kuratidza shanduko mumamiriro emari kana mutemo wemari, zvichipesvedzera manzwiro eUSD.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Zvine mwero kusvika pakakwirira, zvichifambiswa nedata rekutengesa kubva kuAustralia neUS, sarudzo dzeOPEC dzine chekuita nemisika yemafuta, uye zvichemo zveUS zvisina basa.

Impact Score: 7/10, ine akakosha pesvedzero kubva kumakero ekutengeserana, data remusika wevashandi, uye kusimukira kwemusika wesimba kuumba manzwiro eAUD, JPY, USD, uye mari-yakabatana-mari.

04/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 4 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 4, 2024

GDP Data yeAustralia (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
- QoQ: Forecast: 0.5%, Yakapfuura: 0.2%.
- YOY: Forecast: 1.1%, Yakapfuura: 1.0%.
  Kukura kwakasimba kweGDP kwaizoratidza kupora kwehupfumi, kutsigira AUD. Mashoko asina simba angaratidza kuti hupfumi hunoita zvishoma nezvishoma, zvingangoremera mari.
Japan neChina PMI Data (00:30–01:45 UTC):
- Japan kana Jibun Bank Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 50.2, Zvakapfuura: 49.7.
- China Caixin Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 52.5, Zvakapfuura: 52.0.
  PMI kuverenga pamusoro pe50 kunoratidza kuwedzera. Huwandu hwakasimba hwaizotsigira iyo JPY neCNY nekusaina yakasimba sevhisi sevhisi kuita, nepo isina kusimba data inogona kuremedza mari.
Eurozone PMI Data (09:00 UTC):
- Composite PMI (Nov): Forecast: 48.1, Zvakapfuura: 50.0.
- Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 49.2, Zvakapfuura: 51.6.
  PMIs pazasi 50 inoratidza contraction. Data isina kusimba yaizorema paEUR, nepo kuverenga kwakasimba-kupfuura-kunotarisirwa kungapa rutsigiro.
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Shanduko (Nov) (13:15 UTC):
- Forecast: 166K, Previous: 233K.
  Inoratidza kukura kwebasa rebazi rakazvimirira. Nhamba isina kusimba inogona kuratidza kutonhora kwemusika wevashandi, kungangoita huremu paUSD. Data yakasimba yaizotsigira mari.
Mutungamiri weECB Lagarde Anotaura (13:30 na15:30 UTC):
Maonero eHawkish kubva kuLagarde aizotsigira EUR nekusimbisa tarisiro yekusimbisa, nepo kutaura kwakashata kunogona kupfavisa mari.
US PMI & Factory Orders (14:45–15:00 UTC):
- S&P Global Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 57.0, Zvakapfuura: 55.0.
- ISM Isiri Kugadzira PMI (Nov): Forecast: 55.5, Zvakapfuura: 56.0.
- Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.3%, Yakapfuura: -0.5%.
  Kuvandudza PMI uye data remafekitori kwaizoratidza kusimba muhupfumi hweUS, kutsigira USD. Mashoko asina simba anogona kuremedza mari.
US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
- Previous: -1.844M.
  Kudonhedza kwakakura kwaizotsigira mitengo yemafuta uye mari yakabatana nemidziyo, nepo chivakwa chaizoratidza kushomeka kuri kuita, kumanikidza mitengo.
Fed Chair Powell Anotaura & Beige Book (18:45–19:00 UTC):
Zvakataurwa naPowell neBhuku reBeige zvinogona kupa nzwisiso mumaonero eFed pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo, kukura, uye mafambiro emitemo yeramangwana. Matoni eHawkish aizotsigira iyo USD, nepo matauriro ehudovish anogona kuinetesa.

Market Impact Analysis

Australia GDP Data:
Huwandu hweGDP hwakasimba hwaizotsigira AUD, zvichiratidza simba rehupfumi. Mashoko asina simba anogona kudzikisira manzwiro emari.
Japan neChina PMI Data:
Kuwedzera kwemasevhisi eJapan kana eChina kwaizotsigira JPY neCNY, zvichiratidza kudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi. Contraction inogona kurema pane ese mari.
Eurozone PMI Data & ECB Commentary:
Weaker PMIs yaizoyera EUR nekusimbisa matambudziko ehupfumi. Hawkish ECB tsananguro inogona kupikisa kukanganisa kwe data isina simba, kutsigira mari.
US ADP, PMI, uye Factory Orders:
Basa rakasimba uye PMI data yaizosimbisa iyo USD nekuratidzira kusimba muchikamu chebasa uye sevhisi. Data risina simba rinogona kuratidza kutonhora kwehupfumi, kurema pamari.
Crude Oil Inventories:
Kudonhedza kwaizotsigira mitengo yemafuta, kubatsiridza mari-yakabatana nemari seCAD neAUD. Chivakwa chaizoratidza kushomeka kushoma, kumanikidza mitengo.
Fed Chair Powell & Beige Book:
Matoni eHawkish aizotsigira USD nekusimbisa tarisiro yekukwira kwemwero. Matauriro ehudovi kana manzwiro ekuchenjerera anogona kuremedza mari.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Yakakwira, ine data rakakosha kubva kuAustralia, Eurozone, uye US, padivi pebhengi repakati tsinhiro kubva kuLagarde naPowell vachiumba musika manzwiro.

Impact Score: 8/10, inotungamirwa neGDP, PMI, data rebasa, uye ruzivo rwebhangi repakati rinopesvedzera AUD, EUR, uye USD kufamba.

03/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 3 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 3, 2024

Australia Current Account (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
- Forecast: -10.3B, Previous: -10.7B.
  Inoyera mutsauko pakati pezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kunze kwenyika zvinhu, masevhisi, mari, uye kutamiswa. Kushomeka kwakatetepa kwaizoratidza kuvandudzwa kwekutengeserana, kutsigira AUD. Kushomeka kukuru kunogona kuremedza mari nekuratidza kusaenzana kwehupfumi.
Japan Yemakore gumi JGB Auction (10:03 UTC):
- Previous Goho: 1.000%.
  Goho rinoratidza kudiwa kwemainvesti kumabhondi ehurumende yeJapan. Kukwira kwegoho kunoratidza tarisiro yakakwira inflation kana maprimiyamu enjodzi, achitsigira JPY. Zvibereko zvakadzikama kana kuti zvinodonha zvinoratidza kusimba kwemudyaridziri asi zvinogona kuyera mari.
US JOLTS Basa Kuvhurwa (Oct) (15:00 UTC):
- Forecast: 7.490M, Previous: 7.443M.
  Inoyera huwandu hwekuvhurwa kwemabasa muUS. Kuwedzera kwaizoratidza kuenderera mberi kwesimba remusika wevashandi, kutsigira USD. Kudzikira kunogona kuratidza kutonhora kwemusika webasa, zvingangoremera mari.
US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
- Previous: -5.935M.
  Inoteedzera shanduko yevhiki nevhiki muUS crude oil inventory. Kudonhedza kunoratidza kudiwa kwakasimba, kutsigira mitengo yemafuta uye mari-yakabatana nemari. Inventory inovaka inoratidza kuderera kudiwa, kumanikidza mitengo.

Market Impact Analysis

Australia Current Account:
Kuderera kwekushomeka kwaizotsigira AUD nekuratidza kutengeserana kwakavandudzwa kana kuyerera kwemari. Kuwedzera kushomeka kunogona kusimudza kushushikana pamusoro pekusagadzikana kwekunze, zvichiremedza mari.
Japan 10-Year JGB Auction:
Goho repamusoro raizotsigira JPY nekuisa chiratidzo chekuwedzera inflation tarisiro kana kuderedza kudiwa kwekutenga bond neBoJ. Goho rakatsiga rinoratidza kuenderera mberi, nekushomeka kwemusika.
US JOLTS Basa Kuvhurwa:
Kuwedzera kwekuvhurwa kwemabasa kwaizoratidza kusimba kwemusika wevashandi, kusimbisa tarisiro yesimba rehupfumi uye kutsigira USD. Kudzikira kunogona kupfavisa USD nekukurudzira kutonhora kwevashandi.
US API Crude Oil Stock:
Kudonhedza kwakakosha kwaizoratidza kusimba kwekupa kana kudiwa kwakasimba, kutsigira mitengo yemafuta uye mari-yakabatana-mari seCAD neAUD. Chivakwa chaizoratidza kushomeka kushoma, kumanikidza mitengo yemafuta.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Zvine mwero, zvine tarisiro kuUS data yemusika wevashandi uye crude oiri zvigadzirwa zvinoumba mari uye misika yezvinhu.

Impact Score: 6/10, inotungamirwa nekusimba kwemusika wevashandi (JOLTS), maitiro emafuta ekugadzira, uye mabhondi egoho muJapan achipesvedzera manzwiro enguva pfupi.

02/12/2024

Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 2 Zvita 2024

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvinouya zvehupfumi musi waZvita 2, 2024

Australia Economic Data (00:30–01:30 UTC):
- Kubvumira Kuvaka (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 1.2%, Yakapfuura: 4.4%.
  Inoyera shanduko muhuwandu hwezvivakwa zvitsva zvinotenderwa. Nhamba yakaderera inogona kuyera paAUD, nepo kubvumidzwa kwakasimba kwaizoratidza kusimba muchikamu chekuvaka.
- Kambani Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q3): Forecast: 0.6%, Yakapfuura: -5.3%.
  Inoratidza purofiti yekambani. Kudzokororwa kwaizotsigira AUD, zvichiratidza kuvandudzwa kwehupfumi.
- Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.4%, Yakapfuura: 0.1%.
  Kukwira kwekutengesa kwekutengesa kunoratidza kudiwa kwakasimba kwevatengi, kutsigira iyo AUD, nepo huwandu husina kusimba hwaizoratidza kungwarira pakati pevatengi.
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (01:45 UTC):
- Forecast: 50.6, Previous: 50.3.
  Kuverenga pamusoro pe50 kunoratidza kuwedzera mukugadzira. Yakasimba data yaizotsigira iyo CNY uye kuwedzera njodzi yepasirese, nepo isina kusimba data yaizoratidza kunonoka kuita.
Eurozone Economic Data (09:00–10:00 UTC):
- HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Forecast: 45.2, Zvakapfuura: 46.0.
  PMI iri pasi pe50 inoratidza chibvumirano. Huwandu husina kusimba hunogona kuyera EUR, nepo kuvandudzwa kunoratidza kugona kupora.
- Mwero Wokushaya Basa (Oct): Forecast: 6.3%, Yakapfuura: 6.3%.
  Urovha hwakagadzikana hunoratidza musika wevashandi wakagadzikana, unotsigira EUR.
- Mutungamiri weECB Lagarde Vanotaura (10:00 UTC):
  Maonero eHawkish aizotsigira EUR nekusimbisa kusimbaradza tarisiro, nepo kutaura kwakashata kunogona kupfavisa mari.
US Manufacturing and Construction Data (14:45–15:00 UTC):
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Forecast: 48.8, Zvakapfuura: 48.5.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Forecast: 47.7, Zvakapfuura: 46.5.
- ISM Manufacturing Mitengo (Nov): Forecast: 55.2, Zvakapfuura: 54.8.
- Kushandisa Pakuvaka (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.2%, Yakapfuura: 0.1%.
  Kuvandudza mukugadzira PMIs kana kushandiswa kwekuvaka kwaizoratidza kusimba kwehupfumi, kutsigira USD. Kuwedzera chibvumirano muPMI kana kushomeka kwemari kunogona kuyera mari.
CFTC Speculative Positions (20:30 UTC):
- Inoteedzera fungidziro mukati mafuta asina kuchena, goridhe, equities, uye mari hombe.
  Shanduko muzvinzvimbo zvemambure zvinoratidza shanduko mumusika wemanzwiro uye mafambiro emangwana.
Fed Mhinduro (20:15 & 21:30 UTC):
- Fed Waller Anotaura (20:15 UTC): Insights muFed policy direction.
- Nhengo yeFOMC Williams Anotaura (21:30 UTC): Inogona kupesvedzera zvinotarisirwa kukwira kwemitengo nemafambisirwo emari yemumba. Matoni eHawkish aizotsigira iyo USD, nepo matauriro ehudovish aigona kuremerwa pazviri.

Market Impact Analysis

Data yeAustralia:
Kudzoreredza purofiti yemakambani, kutengesa kwepamusoro kwekutengesa, kana kubvumidzwa kwakasimba kwekuvaka kwaizotsigira iyo AUD, zvichiratidza kudzoreredza kwehupfumi. Mashoko asina simba anogona kuderedza manzwiro.
China Kugadzira PMI:
Kuverenga kwakasimba kwaizotsigira manzwiro enjodzi yepasirese uye mari-yakabatana nemari senge AUD, nepo data isina kusimba inogona kuratidza kudzikira kwepasirese.
Eurozone Data & Lagarde Kutaura:
Yakasimba PMI kana data rekusashanda uye hawkish ECB tsinhiro yaizotsigira EUR. Huwandu hwekugadzira husina kusimba kana kutaura kwakashata kunogona kuremedza mari.
US Manufacturing Data & Fed Commentary:
Resilience muISM uye S&P PMIs, mari yekuvaka, kana hawkish Fed tsinhiro yaizosimbisa USD simba. Idata isina kusimba kana kutaura kwakashata kunogona kupfavisa mari.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Zvine mwero kusvika pakakwirira, zvine tarisiro pane yepasi rose yekugadzira data, ECB uye Fed tsinhiro, uye US inflation-yakabatana yekugadzira manhamba.

Impact Score: 7/10, ine zvakakosha pesvedzero kubva kuChina PMI, US kugadzira uye kuvaka data, uye yepakati bhangi tsinhiro inoumba pfupi-pfupi musika manzwiro.

01/12/2024

Nguva(GMT+0/UTC+0)	mamiriro	kukosha	chiitiko	kushurudzira	pashure
04:30		2 pfungwa	Kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri (MoM) (Gumiguru)	3.0%	1.6%
10:00		2 pfungwa	New Loans (Nov)	950.0B	500.0B
10:00		2 pfungwa	Kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri (MoM) (Gumiguru)	0.0%	-2.0%
13:30		2 pfungwa	Export Price Index (MoM) (Nov)	-0.2%	0.8%
13:30		2 pfungwa	Indekisi Yemitengo Yekupinza (MoM) (Nov)	-0.2%	0.3%
18:00		2 pfungwa	US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	---	482
18:00		2 pfungwa	US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	---	589
20:30		2 pfungwa	CFTC Crude Oil inofungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo	---	201.5K
20:30		2 pfungwa	CFTC Goridhe yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo	---	259.7K
20:30		2 pfungwa	CFTC Nasdaq 100 yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo	---	29.7K
20:30		2 pfungwa	CFTC S&P 500 yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo	---	-108.6K
20:30		2 pfungwa	CFTC AUD yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo	---	21.4K
20:30		2 pfungwa	CFTC JPY yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo	---	2.3K
20:30		2 pfungwa	CFTC EUR yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo	---	-57.5K

Nguva(GMT+0/UTC+0)	mamiriro	kukosha	chiitiko	kushurudzira	pashure
00:30		2 pfungwa	Shanduko Yebasa (Nov)	26.0K	15.9K
00:30		2 pfungwa	Shanduko Yebasa Yakazara (Nov)	---	9.7K
00:30		2 pfungwa	Mwero Wokushaya Basa (Nov)	4.2%	4.1%
09:00		2 pfungwa	IEA Monthly Report	---	---
13:15		2 pfungwa	Deposit Facility Rate (Zvita)	3.00%	3.25%
13:15		2 pfungwa	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	---	3.65%
13:15		2 pfungwa	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	---	---
13:15		2 pfungwa	ECB Mubereko weChisarudzo (Zvita)	3.15%	3.40%
13:30		2 pfungwa	Kuenderera mberi Nezvichemo Zvisina Basa	1,880K	1,871K
13:30		2 pfungwa	Core PPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.2%	0.3%
13:30		2 pfungwa	Pakutanga Kusarudzwa kweJobho	221K	224K
13:30		2 pfungwa	PPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.2%	0.2%
13:45		2 pfungwa	ECB Press Musangano	---	---
15:15		2 pfungwa	Mutungamiri weECB Lagarde Vanotaura	---	---
18:00		2 pfungwa	30-Yegore Bond Auction	---	4.608%
21:30		2 pfungwa	Fed's Balance Sheet	---	6,896B
21:30		2 pfungwa	Bhizinesi NZ PMI (Nov)	---	45.8
23:50		2 pfungwa	Tankan Yese Yakakura Indasitiri CAPEX (Q4)	9.6%	10.6%
23:50		2 pfungwa	Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)	---	14
23:50		2 pfungwa	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)	13	13
23:50		2 pfungwa	Tankan Hombe Vasiri Vagadziri Indekisi (Q4)	33	34

Nguva(GMT+0/UTC+0)	mamiriro	kukosha	chiitiko	kushurudzira	pashure
10:00		2 pfungwa	OPEC Mwedzi Chirevo	---	---
12:00		2 pfungwa	OPEC Mwedzi Chirevo	---	---
13:30		3 pfungwa	Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.3%	0.3%
13:30		2 pfungwa	Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)	3.3%	3.3%
13:30		3 pfungwa	CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.7%	2.6%
13:30		3 pfungwa	CPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.3%	0.2%
15:30		3 pfungwa	Mafuta Asingawaniki Inventories	---	-5.073M
15:30		2 pfungwa	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	---	0.050M
18:00		3 pfungwa	10-Yegore Note Auction	---	4.347%
19:00		2 pfungwa	Federal Budget Balance (Nov)	-325.0B	-257.0B
21:45		2 pfungwa	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)	---	0.6%

Nguva(GMT+0/UTC+0)	mamiriro	kukosha	chiitiko	kushurudzira	pashure
00:30		2 pfungwa	NAB Business Confidence (Nov)	---	5
03:00		2 pfungwa	Trade Balance (USD) (Nov)	94.00B	95.27B
03:00		2 pfungwa	Zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (YoY) (Nov)	0.3%	-2.3%
03:00		2 pfungwa	Zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (YoY) (Nov)	8.5%	12.7%
03:30		3 pfungwa	RBA Mubereko weChisarudzo (Zvita)	4.35%	4.35%
03:30		2 pfungwa	RBA Rate Chirevo	---	---
10:00		2 pfungwa	Musangano weOPEC	---	---
10:00		2 pfungwa	Eurogroup Misangano	---	---
13:30		2 pfungwa	Nonfarm Production (QoQ) (Q3)	2.2%	2.5%
13:30		2 pfungwa	Mutengo Webasa Wemayuniti (QoQ) (Q3)	1.9%	0.4%
17:00		2 pfungwa	EIA Yenguva Yenguva pfupi Energy Outlook	---	---
17:00		2 pfungwa	WASDE Report	---	---
18:00		2 pfungwa	3-Yegore Note Auction	---	4.152%
21:30		2 pfungwa	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	---	1.232M
23:50		2 pfungwa	BSI Yakakura Manufacturing Conditions (Q4)	1.8	4.5

Nguva(GMT+0/UTC+0)	mamiriro	kukosha	chiitiko	kushurudzira	pashure
01:30		2 pfungwa	CPI (MoM) (Nov)	---	-0.3%
01:30		2 pfungwa	CPI (YoY) (Nov)	---	0.3%
01:30		2 pfungwa	PPI (YoY) (Nov)	---	-2.9%
14:00		2 pfungwa	NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Tarisiro	---	2.9%

Tag: ZVIITIKO ZVAKAITIKA CHUMA

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