David Edwards
Mumiriri weDemocratic Alliance, Kamala Harris, akatapudza mutungamiriri weRepublican mukwikwidzi Donald Trump paBlockchain-based betting platform Polymarket, zvichiratidza kusavimbika kwakawedzera sezvo Zuva reSarudzo rasvika.
Kusawirirana kwePolymarket kwaTrump kunoramba kuri pamusoro pehuwandu hwekuvhota, asi Harris akawana hunyanzvi mumazuva achangopfuura. Pamusika uyu, vashandisi vanofungidzira pane zvabuda nekutenga "mashare" akasungirirwa kune chaiyo mhedzisiro, nemugove wega wega unokosha USDC 1 kana mhedzisiro ikaitika. Mutengo we60-cent wechikamu che "Hongu" pachiitiko chinoratidza mukana we60% wekuti zviitike, zvichienderana nekududzirwa kwemusika.
Sarudzo dzaHarris paPolymarket dzakakwira kusvika pamasendi makumi mana nemana pachikamu chimwe chete pamberi pekuverenga mavhoti neChipiri, kubva pamasendi makumi matatu nematatu musi waGumiguru 44. Zvikamu zvaTrump zvakadzikira panguva imwe chete kubva pamasendi makumi matanhatu nematanhatu kusvika pamasendi makumi mashanu nemashanu. Zvichakadaro, data kubva kuReal Clear Politics inoratidza Trump ane reza-mutete polling edge pa33% kusvika 30%, zvichiratidza makwikwi emakwikwi.
Basa remusika rawedzerawo. Polymarket yakanyora kuwedzera kwemabheti emhando yepamusoro, nekutengesa kunodarika zviuru gumi zvemadhora uye zviuru zana zvemadhora zvichikwira zvakanyanya pakupera kwesvondo. Makuru ane chekuita muzvikamu zvese zveHarris naTrump vatanga kuburitsa zvinzvimbo zvavo, pamwe vachikiya purofiti kubva kumitengo ichangoburwa.
Iyo uptick mukusawirirana kwaHarris inogona kuratidza maitiro ekudzivirira, sezvo vatengesi vanoisa mabheti ekudzivirira pamushandirapamwe wake pamwe chete nekudyara muTrump, maererano nekuongorora kwakaitwa neCoinDesk. Ongororo yemisika mikuru inoratidza mafambiro ehungwaru evamwe vatori vechikamu kuderedza kurasikirwa kana VaTrump vakatadza kuita zvakanaka paZuva reSarudzo.
Mishumo iri kusimuka yekufungidzirwa kusarongeka kwekuvhota, kunyanya kufarira maDemocrats, kwakawedzera kusagadzikana kwekubheja. Kufungidzira nezve "kubiridzira kwevavhoti" pasocial media kunogona kunge kuri kukanganisa shanduko idzi, sezvo runyerekupe rwuri kuramba ruchitenderera pamapuratifomu akaita saX. Mubheti wezvematongerwo enyika ane simba 'Domer' akazeya pamusoro pezviitiko izvi neSvondo, achipa Harris mukana we55-60% wekukunda. chigaro chemutungamiri wenyika, kuisa data rekuvhota munguva pfupi yapfuura uye maitiro ekuvhota ekutanga.
Pamusoro pezvo, maitiro ehuwandu mukuvhota kwekutanga kwakaratidza kusajairika kweRepublican turnout. Maitiro aya, kana achiratidzira shanduko yehurongwa, anogona kuratidza shanduko mumaitiro evavhoti ayo akaomerwa nesarudzo dzechinyakare.
Chekupedzisira, kuongororwa kwesarudzo dzepashure-2020 kunoratidza kuti maRepublicans akatadza kuita tarisiro mumatunhu achangoburwa kunyangwe hazvo Mutungamiri Joe Biden akadzikira mvumo. Kusabatana uku pakati pekuvhota uye zvabuda kungave kuri kusundidzira vatengesi vePolymarket kuti vazvidavirire pamusoro pemafungiro ekuvhota akakura, asingafungidzike.
