Thomas Daniels
Sezvo magweta eUS anosundidzira mberi kukakavara kwemadhora mazana mashanu emadhora ekuwedzera muchikwereti chemubatanidzwa, vatengesi veBitcoin vari kutarisisa-asi pamwe nekuda kwezvikonzero zvisiri izvo. Nepo vamwe vatengesi vachifanotaura kuwedzera kwemitengo yeBitcoin mukupindura kukwira kwechikwereti cheUS, kunyatsoongorora nhoroondo yemusika uye macroeconomic zviratidzo zvinopenda mufananidzo wakanyanya.
Chikwereti Ceiling Hikes: Hapana Yakajeka Catalyst yeBitcoin
Nhoroondo dzenhoroondo dzinopa tsigiro shoma yepfungwa yekuti kusimudza sirin'i yechikwereti cheUS kunopisa zvakananga Bitcoin rally. Muchokwadi, kamwe chete - muna Chikumi 2023 - iyo Bitcoin yakanyoresa post-chikwereti-ceiling kuwana mukati memwedzi mitanhatu hwindo. Kunyanya kazhinji, iyo cryptocurrency yakatumira kushomeka kana kuita kwakashata mushure mesarudzo dzakafanana dzemari.
Iyi pateni inobata chokwadi kunyangwe rondedzero inowana tsigiro yekuti Bitcoin inoshanda seruzhowa kupesana nekusaita mari kweUS. Tarisiro iripo, yakakonzerwa neSeneti kufambira mberi zvishoma kwemutungamiri wenyika VaTrump vanodaidzwa kuti “One Big Beautiful Bill,” inogona kunge isati yakwana. Mutemo uyu, unofungidzirwa neCongressional Budget Office kuti uwedzere kushomeka kwemubatanidzwa nemadhora 3.3 trillion mumakore gumi anotevera, zvino wakamirira vhoti muImba yeVamiriri.
Bitcoin Mutengo Kugadzikana Zviratidzo Yakakura Macro Narrative
Pasinei neruzha rwezvematongerwo enyika, Bitcoin yakaramba yakagadzikana zvinoshamisa. Kubva Chipiri, iyo dhijitari asset yakatengeswa pamadhora zviuru zana neshanu-isina kuchinjwa kubva kumwedzi mishanu yapfuura. Uku kuderera kwemitengo kwakaitika kunyangwe misika yaitarisira kuwedzera kwechikwereti, uye nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzakayambira kuti hurumende yemubatanidzwa ichapedza mari pakati paNyamavhuvhu isipo mutemo.
Kudzikama kwacho kunoratidza kuti maitiro eBitcoin achangoburwa ane zvishoma nezvekuvandudzwa kwemutemo uye zvakawanda nezve manzwiro ehupfumi. Vatori vemusika vanoita sevari mutengo mumhedzisiro yenguva refu yekushomeka kwemari uye shanduko yemari, pane kuita kune ega ega nhanho.
Iyo Federal Reserve: Mutyairi Wechokwadi weBitcoin Valuations
Nepo mutemo wezvemari uchigadzira misoro, mari yezvemari inoramba iri mutyairi ane simba wekukosha kweBitcoin. Chirevo cheMunyori weTreasury, Scott Bessent, chekuti bhiri iri rinomiririra danho re "kudzora zvikwereti" zvakakonzera kushoropodzwa kubva kune vanoongorora zvemari, kusanganisira muvambi weNorthmanTrader Sven Henrich. Henrich anopikisa kuti nzira yazvino—inozivikanwa nekuwedzera kwekushomeka panguva imwe cheteyo uye kusaina kwemari kwakakasharara—inoratidzira pfungwa inopokana yedzidziso yezvemari yemazuva ano.
Munharaunda iyi, Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory inotora nzvimbo yepamusoro. Kuramba kwakakwira mitengo kwaizowedzera mutengo wekubhadhara chikwereti, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kushushikana kwemari. Sezvineiwo, pivot to looser policy inogona kukanganisa simba rekutenga reUSdhora repasi rose, richisimbisa kukwezva kweBitcoin sechitoro chekukosha.
Treasury Inobereka uye iyo Bitcoin Decoupling Narrative
Nechinyakare, pave paine kuwirirana kwakanaka pakati pegumi-gore Treasury goho neBitcoin mitengo, uye zvese zvichikwira mukupindura kune investor kunetseka pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo uye kusagadzikana kwehupfumi. Asi, maitiro emazuva ano anoratidza mukana wekubvisa. Nepo Treasury goho wakadzikira kubva 10% kusvika 4.50% muna June, Bitcoin akaramba nzvimbo yayo pamusoro $4.25.
Kusiyana uku kunoreva kuti Bitcoin inogona kunge iri kupindura zvakanyanya kune tarisiro yekuderedzwa kwemari pane kuita bond market movement. Kutsigira maonero aya imari inopinda mune dzimwe inflation-hedged assets, senge equities uye commodities, zvichiratidza kuti vanoisa mari vari kutsvaga imwe dhora kupera simba.
Mhedziso: Simba reBitcoin Riri Kupfuura Washington
Kunyange gungano remangwana riri pamusoro pe $110,000 risiri kunze kwemubvunzo, kuti budiriro yakadai yakanangana nekupfuura kwe "Big Beautiful Bill" inorerutsa masimba akaomarara ari kutamba. Kusimba kweBitcoin pakati pekusagadzikana kwemari kunotaura zvishoma nezvekuita kweCongressional uye zvakanyanya kune investor kunetsekana nekuparara kwenguva refu kwedhora reUS.
Sezvakataurwa mutsanangudzo ichangoburwa kubva kuThe Kobeissi Letter, kuderera kwedhora iko zvino kwakaumbwa neboka renyeredzi rezvinhu-kusanganisira mutero, chisingaperi mari yekushandisa, uye kuwedzera kumanikidza kuFederal Reserve kuti pivot. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, basa reBitcoin seruzhowa runopesana nenjodzi yemari inoramba ichishanduka, kunyangwe mutambo wedenga rechikwereti ukaramba uchifananidzira.
