Jeremy Oles

Rakabudiswa On: 17/10/2024
Goverana!
Zviitiko zvehupfumi zviri kuuya 18 Gumiguru 2024
By Rakabudiswa On: 17/10/2024
Nguva(GMT+0/UTC+0)mamirirokukoshachiitikokushurudzirapashure
02:00🇨🇳2 pfungwaYakagadziriswa Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep)3.3%3.4%
02:00🇨🇳2 pfungwaGDP (QQ) (Q3)1.0%0.7%
02:00🇨🇳3 pfungwaGDP (YoY) (Q3)4.6%4.7%
02:00🇨🇳2 pfungwaChinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q3)---5.0%
02:00🇨🇳2 pfungwaKugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri (YoY) (Sep)4.6%4.5%
02:00🇨🇳2 pfungwaChinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Sep)---5.8%
02:00🇨🇳2 pfungwaChiyero chekushaikwa kwemabasa kweChinese (Sep)5.3%5.3%
02:00🇨🇳2 pfungwaNBS Press Musangano------
10:00🇪🇺2 pfungwaEU Leaders Summit------
12:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaMvumo yekuvaka (Sep)1.450M1.470M
12:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaDzimba Dzinotanga (Sep)1.350M1.356M
12:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaDzimba Dzinotanga (MoM) (Sep)---9.6%
13:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaFOMC Nhengo Bostic Inotaura------
14:00Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaFOMC Member Kashkari Speaks------
14:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)3.4%3.4%
16:10Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaFed Waller Anotaura------
16:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaFOMC Nhengo Bostic Inotaura------
17:00Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaUS Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count---481
17:00Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaUS Baker Hughes Total Rig Count---586
19:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaCFTC Crude Oil inofungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo---190.6K
19:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaCFTC Goridhe yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo---278.2K
19:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaCFTC Nasdaq 100 yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo---13.3K
19:30Extraterrestrial2 pfungwaCFTC S&P 500 yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo----5.6K
19:30🇦🇺2 pfungwaCFTC AUD yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo---33.4K
19:30🇯🇵2 pfungwaCFTC JPY yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo---36.5K
19:30🇪🇺2 pfungwaCFTC EUR yekufungidzira mambure zvinzvimbo---39.1K

Pfupiso yeZviitiko Zvehupfumi Zvinouya muna Gumiguru 18, 2024

  1. China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
    Inoyera kudyara kwezvinhu zvenyama senge zvivakwa uye muchina. Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.4%. Kukura zvishoma nezvishoma kunogona kuratidza kutonhora kwekudyara chiitiko muChina.
  2. China GDP (QQ) (Q3) (02:00 UTC):
    Kukura kwekota kwehupfumi hweChina. Forecast: 1.0%, Yakapfuura: 0.7%. Mhedzisiro yakasimba-kupfuura-inotarisirwa ingaratidza kuwedzera kwehupfumi kwakasimba.
  3. China GDP (YoY) (Q3) (02:00 UTC):
    Kukura kwegore negore kwehupfumi hweChina. Forecast: 4.6%, Pamberi: 4.7%. Kukura kunononoka-kupfuura-kunotarisirwa kungaratidza kusimuka kwehupfumi, ukuwo kukura kwakasimba kungaratidza kusimba.
  4. China GDP YTD (YoY) (Q3) (02:00 UTC):
    Inoteedza kukura kwehupfumi kwegore kusvika parizvino. Zvakapfuura: 5.0%.
  5. China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
    Inoyera kubuda kwechikamu cheindasitiri yeChina. Forecast: 4.6%, Yakapfuura: 4.5%. Kukwira kwekugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri kungaratidza kudiwa kuri nani.
  6. China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
    Gore-kusvika-zuva kukura mukugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri. Zvakapfuura: 5.8%.
  7. China Kushaikwa Kwemabasa (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
    Inoyera chikamu chevashandi vasina mabasa. Forecast: 5.3%, Yakapfuura: 5.3%. Urovha hwakadzikama hunoratidza kugadzikana kwemamiriro emusika wevashandi.
  8. NBS Press Conference (02:00 UTC):
    Musangano wevatori venhau wakaitwa neChina National Bureau of Statistics, ungangozeya mafambiro ehupfumi hwenyika pamwe nemaonero.
  9. EU Leaders Summit (10:00 UTC):
    Musangano wevatungamiri veEuropean Union wekuzeya nyaya dzezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi. Sarudzo dzakakosha dzemitemo dzinogona kukanganisa EUR.
  10. Mvumo yeKuvaka yeUS (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
    Inoyera nhamba yemvumo itsva dzekuvaka dzakapihwa. Forecast: 1.450M, Pamberi: 1.470M. Kudzikira kunogona kuratidza kunonoka kwemusika wedzimba chiitiko.
  11. Kunotanga Kumba kweUS (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
    Inoteedzera huwandu hwezvirongwa zvekuvaka dzimba dzekugara. Forecast: 1.350M, Pamberi: 1.356M. Kudzikira kunoratidza kushomeka kushoma kwedzimba nyowani.
  12. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (14:30 UTC):
    Yechokwadi-yenguva fungidziro yeUS GDP kukura. Forecast: 3.4%, Pamberi: 3.4%.
  13. Nhengo yeFOMC Bostic Inotaura (13:30 & 16:30 UTC):
    Maonero kubva kuAtlanta Fed Mutungamiri Raphael Bostic anogona kupa nzwisiso kuUS mari mutemo uye maonero eFed painflation nemitengo yemhindu.
  14. Nhengo yeFOMC Kashkari Inotaura (14:00 UTC):
    Neel Kashkari, Mutungamiri weMinneapolis Fed, anogona kupa imwe tsinhiro pamusoro pemamiriro ehupfumi eUS uye sarudzo dzemubereko dzemangwana.
  15. Fed Waller Anotaura (16:10 UTC):
    Mashoko kubva kuFed Gavhuna Christopher Waller, ayo anogona kupa nzwisiso mune ramangwana reFederal Reserve gwara remitemo.
  16. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Inoteedzera huwandu hweanoshanda mafuta rigs. Yakapfuura: 481. Nhamba inokwira inogona kuratidza kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta.
  17. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Inoyera huwandu hwese hwemafuta anoshanda uye gasi rigs. Zvakapfuura: 586.
  18. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    • Crude Oil Net Positions (Yapfuura: 190.6K): Zvinoratidza manzwiro emusika nezvemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena.
    • Gold Net Positions (Yapfuura: 278.2K): Inoratidza manzwiro emitengo yegoridhe, ine mambure akareba anoratidza manzwiro.
    • Nasdaq 100 Net Positions (Yapfuura: 13.3K): Inoratidza kumira kwemusika mune tech stocks.
    • S&P 500 Net Positions (Yapfuura: -5.6K): Inoratidza manzwiro mumusika wakafara weUS stock.
    • AUD Net Positions (Yapfuura: 33.4K): Inoyera zvinzvimbo zvekufungidzira padhora reAustralia.
    • JPY Net Positions (Yapfuura: 36.5K): Inoratidza mafungiro ekufungidzira kune yen yeJapan.
    • EUR Net Positions (Yapfuura: 39.1K): Inoratidza fungidziro yemusika manzwiro kune euro.

Market Impact Analysis

  • China GDP, Industrial Production, uye Urovha Data:
    Yakasimba-kupfuura-inotarisirwa GDP uye huwandu hwekugadzira maindasitiri hwaizotsigira njodzi midziyo uye zvigadzirwa, zvichiratidza basa rakasimba rehupfumi muChina. Mhedzisiro isina simba-kupfuura-inotarisirwa inogona kusimudza kushushikana pamusoro pekukura kwepasirese, kukanganisa manzwiro enjodzi uye kuyera mari ine chekuita nezvinodiwa pasi rose, senge AUD.
  • US Kuvaka Mvumo & Dzimba Dzinotanga:
    Kudzikira kwemvumo dzekuvaka kana kutanga kwedzimba kungaratidza kudzikira kwemusika wedzimba, izvo zvinogona kurema paUSD. Yakasimba-kupfuura-inotarisirwa data inogona kuratidza kusimba muUS dzimba chikamu.
  • Fed Hurukuro (Bostic, Kashkari, Waller):
    Matauriro eHawkish kubva kuvakuru veFed aizotsigira USD nekuwedzera tarisiro yekuwedzera kukwira, nepo dovish tsinhiro inogona kuremedza mari.
  • CFTC Kufungidzira Nzvimbo:
    Shanduko mune yekufungidzira chinzvimbo inopa nzwisiso mumusika manzwiro mumakirasi akasiyana easset. Kukwira kwemambure akareba zvinzvimbo muzvigadzirwa zvakaita seoiri isina kukora kana goridhe zvinoratidzira manzwiro, ukuwo shanduko mukuenzana uye mari yekumisikidza inopa zviratidzo nezve njodzi yemusika.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Zvine mwero, zvine kutarisisa kwakanyanya kuChina data rehupfumi, nhamba dzemusika wedzimba dzeUS, uye hurukuro dzeFed. Misika inonyatso tarisisa GDP yeChinese uye kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri kuti iratidze kusimba kwehupfumi hwenyika, ukuwo mashoko evakuru veFed achaumba tarisiro yegwaro remari reUS.

Impact Score: 7/10, nemusanganiswa we data rakakosha rehupfumi kubva kuChina neUS manhamba edzimba anotarisirwa kupesvedzera manzwiro enjodzi yepasirese uye tarisiro yezviitwa zvebhangi repakati.